New open-source tool designed to predict drug overdose mortality in the U.S.


Sumary of New open-source tool designed to predict drug overdose mortality in the U.S.:

  • For two decades, the number of Americans who die each year from drug overdoses has steadily risen, from less than 20,000 in 1999 to more than 80,000 in 2020..
  • The goal of the open-source tool is to predict and prevent deaths through early deployment of public health resources..
  • A big challenge for public health experts is figuring out which parts of the country are at greatest risk of future overdose outbreaks..
  • If we can predict where such outbreaks may happen, then we will be empowered to intervene and stop deaths from occurring.”.
  • The investigators used this third wave to investigate whether a tool could be developed to predict and prevent deaths..
  • “This study provides a novel, rigorously validated tool to inform policy planning in the context of overdose epidemics driven by emerging drugs and sets a new standard for the development of a data-driven response to drug use epidemics,”.
  • said first author Charlie Marks, MPH, graduate research assistant, SDSU-UC San Diego joint doctoral program in Interdisciplinary Research in Substance Abuse..
  • “We found that our approach brought substantial improvement to predicting counties with high fatal overdose rates compared to a simple benchmark that relied on past year rates alone….

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