Scientists predict 2nd Covid wave to peak between April 15-20; decline by end of May


Sumary of Scientists predict 2nd Covid wave to peak between April 15-20; decline by end of May:

  • Scientists are now working on a mathematical model to examine the Covid-19 spread and have predicted that the current second wave will peak somewhere between April 15-20 and then see a decline..
  • The number of ‘active’ symptomatic cases during this period would hit a high, roughly a week later, at the same level of around 10 lakh cases that the country had seen in September last year, said the scientists..
  • They have predicted after using a mathematical model that the ongoing second-wave of Covid-19 pandemic across the country may see a steep decline by the end of May..
  • During the first wave of Covid-19 infections across India, the mathematical approach, named ‘SUTRA’, predicted that the initial surge of infections in August would peak by September and lower in February 2021..
  • Scientists, including Prof Manindra Agrawal from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur, applied the model to predict the trajectory of the current surge in infections and found that the number of daily new infections was likely to peak in mid-April for this ongoing pandemic wave..
  • Prof Agrawal in the IIT’s Department of Computer Science and Engineering, was involved with the national ‘super model’ initiative, and said that the peak is expected to see between 80,000-90,000 new infections per day..
  • The national ‘super model’ had in October last year predicted the pandemic can be controlled by early 2021 with “minimal active symptomatic infections”.
  • Asked about the possible explanation of the second wave, Agrawal said there were two reasons or possibly the combination of the two, that might explain what changed in February, which could make it for the sharp rise..
  • However, like with the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, the trajectory of fresh infections would depend on a lot of other factors, including measures rolled out by the government and adherence to safety protocols by the public..
  • A warning in the original prediction by the expert committee in their super model may still apply if the number of Covid-19 cases starts declining in the fourth week of April….

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