Study warns elderly individuals less able to reduce contacts during COVID-19 lockdown

study warns elderly individuals less able to reduce contacts during covid 19 lockdown

Sumary of Study warns elderly individuals less able to reduce contacts during COVID-19 lockdown:

  • In a rigorous medRxiv* preprint paper, a group of researchers demonstrate shifts in age structure and clinical characteristics of individuals affected with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) after social and economic reopening in three US states and show how elderly individuals were less able to reduce contacts when compared to the younger ones..
  • Moreover, there was also a question of whether the outbreak’s clinical characteristics would improve after the inceptive surge of cases..
  • A group of researchers, led by Dr. Nathan Wikle from the Pennsylvania State University, analyzed the age-structured case, hospitalization, and death time series from the three US states (Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania) which have not experienced substantial epidemic rebounds during summer 2020 in comparison to March/April levels..
  • Gray lines show 1000 sampled posterior β-trajectories with the blue lines showing the median and 95% credible intervals..
  • Evaluating epidemiological patterns and clinical data streams These researchers evaluated eleven clinical data streams outlined by the respective state health departments in a Bayesian inference framework..
  • Basically, this is constructed on an ordinary differential equation (ODE) age-structured epidemic model that entails compartments (i.e., clinical states) for hospitalization, critical care, and mechanical ventilation..
  • More specifically, they have inferred parameters on clinical characteristics, surveillance and transmission patterns of the first epidemic wave that took place in Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania..
  • Then they have delineated the patterns of constantly low transmission in the three states mentioned above through August 31, subsequently comparing them to changes in human mobility metrics and appraising changes in age structure and clinical outcomes..
  • Shifts in age structure and clinical outcomes “We show that population-average mixing rates dropped by more than 50% during the lockdown period in March/April and that the correlation between overall population mobility and transmission-capable mobility was broken in May as these states partially reopened”, say study authors in this medRxiv paper..
  • Likewise, the researchers have demonstrated that elderly individuals were much less able to decrease contacts during the lockdown period than younger individuals, leading to the outbreak concentrating within elderly congregate settings – despite the lockdown..
  • Hence the exposed population was more prone to progress to apparent symptoms and more likely to develop severe clinical outcomes..
  • Posterior distributions of reporting rate (panel A) and clinical parameters (panels B to E) for Rhode Island (purple, left column), Massachusetts (orange, middle column), and Pennsylvania (green, right column)….

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