Sumary of COVID-19: further lockdowns unlikely but some winter restrictions are possible:
- Fewer cases leading to hospitalisation However, a crucial factor affecting pressure on the healthcare system – which is what drives restrictions – is how common COVID-19 is in different age groups.
- With around 10,000 patients in hospital with COVID-19, in October 2020 the pressure on the health system was judged severe enough to justify a national lockdown.
- If we were to get to the same level in the coming months, it would likely be with a much slower upward trajectory than in 2020. While rising, the current rate of increase of hospital patients is not similar to the sort of rapid exponential growth seen just prior to previous lockdowns.
- The latest surveillance report by Public Health England indicates that against the dominant delta variant of COVID-19, two doses of a vaccine provide 79% protection against experiencing symptoms and, most critically, 96% protection against hospitalisation.