Sumary of Grim reality of vaccine mistrust:
- Experts say the research, developed by the Burnet Institute, has highlighted the need to preserve public health measures as a key line of defence against coronavirus even with high vaccination coverage..
- The COVASIM mathematical modelling also suggested Australia was unlikely to achieve herd immunity with current levels of vaccine hesitancy and the higher infectiousness of new variants..
- Burnet Institute head of modelling Nick Scott said public health measures, such as lockdowns, social distancing, mask wearing and the use of QR codes, would need to continue to prevent deaths..
- “Without herd immunity, if we stopped taking a public health approach and allowed the virus to spread, it is likely to infect a large proportion of the community,”.
- The modelling presented scenarios projecting coronavirus infections, hospitalisations and deaths one year after new infections enter the community, even with a vaccinated population..
- One scenario created by Dr Scott and his team assumed a 50 per cent vaccine efficacy in preventing infections and a 93 per cent efficacy at preventing deaths among people who did become infected..
- “We found that if the virus enters the community when 60 per cent vaccine coverage has been reached and is left unchecked, we could see 4885 deaths in Victoria within a year if no public health responses are introduced,”.
- The modelling showed that if vaccine efficacy against infection was 75 per cent, with the same parameters in the scenario described, the number of deaths after one year could be less than 1000….