Sumary of Odds and evens: a strategy for safely exiting lockdown 2:
- While there has been a deluge of COVID-19 research, when it comes to understanding community transmission it is often hard to isolate the effect of individual social distancing policies on the spread of COVID-19..
- Here’s what we know A better approach is to build a controlled experiment into policy to allow rapid evaluation..
- More than 100 years later, in contrast to the thousands of randomised controlled trials investigating ways to treat COVID-19 with drugs, there are almost no controlled experiments assessing social distancing policies..
- Despite non-drug interventions being the mainstay of current mitigation, [there are] none examining social distancing, quarantine effect or adherence, hand hygiene, or other non-drug interventions..
- Large controlled experiment How could controlled policy experiments be conducted to help inform policies on how to end the current lockdown?.
- A variety of such cyclic policies have already been tried by several governments in the first wave of the pandemic (see the table below)..
- Laurence Roope, Author provided Epidemiological modelling suggests that longer cyclic policies are likely to be more effective….