US COVID-19 death outlook improves as drop exceeds forecasts


The decline in COVID-19 fatalities is exceeding expectations in the US, and virus modelers are revising forecasts to reflect a more optimistic outlook heading into March.

The country is expected to have about 7,922 such deaths in the week ending March 20, the lowest since the first week of November, according to the University of Massachusetts’ Reich Lab Covid-19 Forecast Hub, which issued a 28-day forecast on Tuesday based on dozens of independent models.

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The Reich Lab’s contributors sharply cut projections for the coming three weeks after deaths last week came in at 4,318 fewer than expected.

The development comes on a week when the US officially recorded its 500,000th fatality from the virus, punctuating a period unlike any since the 1918 influenza pandemic.

A confluence of circumstances have probably contributed to the fall in cases and eventually deaths, a lagging indicator…

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