Sumary of We created a tool to help predict COVID-19 increases in African countries:
- One of the obstacles if you are trying to guide policy and protect people from COVID-19 is the bewildering amount of data available every day.
- To address this need, we developed a data-driven disease surveillance framework to track and predict country-level COVID-19 cases.
- We start with model-based prediction of infectious diseases.
- But for COVID-19, our methods are valuable for understanding and predicting the infection at the population level.
- Early in 2020 we began discussing ways to use our skills to contribute to the fight against the novel SARS‑CoV‑2, the virus causing COVID-19. We tapped into a wide network of experts, organisations and local authorities.
- They helped us adapt our approach to generate predictions for week-ahead COVID-19 case numbers.
- The model used in this study integrates multiple sets of data to predict COVID-19 transmission.
- Layers, from top to bottom: COVID-19 case counts, specific humidity, rainfall, population, and temperature.